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With all these recent announcements (Microsoft's Silverlight, and Adobe's Flex push), I have the following vision of "The Web" for the next 2 years or so:

• Every self-described designer and web developer will have a powerful toolset to design and implement highly dynamic, rich UI with animations and video for the web
• These new websites will look like those ridiculous "multimedia" CD-ROM products 10 years ago
• Navigation, bookmarking, linking will not work, it will be inconsistent and badly implemented
• All the advances of CSS-based, mobile-adaptable, clean XHTML pages will be gone for these new "rich" websites.
• You'll have to support your mother and your extended family to troubleshoot broken browser plug-in installations

But this is all OK. Eventually new standards and best practices will emerge, and we will figure out ways to make the new "rich" web experience reasonably consistent and usable.